There is a topic my new book, “SAFe (6.0) Is Like …“, titled “Measure Actual Versus Planned” .
It tackles the fact that a lot of us measure planned velocity and actual velocity; however, a lot of us stop short. Too short.
We forget to go after two key and critical things needed to measure the probability of us meeting our promises (planned) against what we do – which in turn impacts our Predictability. These two, together, determine our Probabilistic Predictability! Our predictability is very important to people who are waiting for their “valuable things” to be delivered by us with highest probability for it to be delivered as promised. These two key and critical things are:
1) the ratio of Actual versus Planned — which is also known as Achievement Ratio (AR). To be predictable, the AR must consistently be between 0.80 and 1.00 (in percentage, which is 80% and 100%).
Formula: AR = Actual / Planned.
This formula applies to everything! For example:
Sprint (Iteration) AR = Actual Velocity / Planned Velocity.
ART AR = Sum of all (Committed and Uncommitted) PI Objectives’ assessed scores / Sum of all Committed-Only PI Objectives’ assigned scores
2) the trend of this AR over a period. If the AR is between 80% and 100% … and it is consistently within that range for over a certain period, then the process is “in control”; otherwise, the process is “out-of-control”… there is variability present in the process that is causing the process to potentially be unpredictable — it must be investigated sooner rather than later.