The Cynefin Framework

Cynefin is a Welsh word for “habitat” or domain. It is pronounced as Kuh-NEV-in.

Cynefin was created by Dave Snowden in 1999 when he was working for IBM.

It is used as a device for sense-making / decision-making. This can help folks sense what problem domain they have (or are in) so that they can make better decisions vis-à-vis that domain.

These 5 domains are:

Simple
Complicated
Complex
Chaos
Disorder

These are now elaborated, one at a time.

1) Simple. This is when there is an existing recipe or pattern to use. For example:

a. In the world of chess, “directly or indirectly controlling the center of the board” is a best practice during the opening phase of the game.

b. In SAFe, during PI Planning, specifically during ART Risk Assessment, the best practice is to categorize those risks (Resolved, Owned, Accepted, Mitigated). But first, have a conversation to make sense of the situation or risk then categorize that risk and then respond accordingly… over a span of time if necessary.

Are these best practices become entrained thinking? Could these best practices lead to complacency? Be careful. Be aware. Re-evaluate bests practices.

2) Complicated. Make sense of what is happening, then analyze, then respond accordingly. There is no best practice that one can readily use…and there are lot of “known unknowns”. This is the domain of subject matter experts (SMEs) business analysts and project managers… they can analyze the situation… and uncover those unknowns… then respond accordingly. In SAFe, we see this in PI Planning and Design Thinking. In Chess, we see this when the players take time — longer than usual time — to analyze a situation before they make a move. Could lead to analysis paralysis though… not cool.

3) Complex. Probe the system first to make sense as to what to respond with. The path forward is revealed by the probe. Allow the pattern to emerge. The fog of uncertainty is so thick that you cannot look far ahead – you have to probe to make sense of what to do next. You cannot just lift the fog of uncertainty by looking or waiting for more data, analysis, or command-and-control. In addition to the thick fog of uncertainty, a change in one part of the system changes the dynamics of the whole system. Adapt or perish! This is further exacerbated by Humphrey’s law which states that users do not know what they want until they see it. This is the domain where Agile frameworks and Scaled Agile Frameworks, like SAFe, are at their best: riding the edges of Chaos, Complicated, and Disorder. After the Iteration Review or System Demo in SAFe, the backlog could be impacted by the feedback from the users… and, as a result, the backlog content and prioritization are changed, and the path forward changes. In Chess, this happens when you see a “waiting move” played… this is to probe to see what the opponent will do… the path forward is revealed by the probe.

4) Chaos. This is when you must act … then make sense of what’s going on… then respond. There is no “recipe”, no time to analyze, no time to probe. This is like in the game of Chess during a time-crunch.. if you do not act (make a move), you will use up all your allocated time… you will lose the game. Life is also like that… specially during emergencies (i.e., the September 11 attacks). You must act in order to – at least – get yourself in the “Complex” domain where you can start to “Probe”… make sense of the situation… then respond…the path forward is revealed by the probe. Be innovative. Knowledge-based data is not available.

5) Disorder. You must move away from this domain to one of the other domains. Be bold and be wise. Disorder means, failure to: